Iran says NPT membership in doubt if war resumes, as attacks on Hormuz shipping go on

Iran's top security official has said it is unclear whether Iran will stay in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the United States and Israel go to war with it again, the clearest warning yet from Tehran that the treaty could become a casualty of the conflict. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, made the remarks on state television on Saturday, according to the Russian news agency TASS.

The warning came on a day of hardening rhetoric in Tehran, with a senior lawmaker promising a response "with zero limits" to any attack, and as attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz continued. India's shipping minister said all Indian sailors on three tankers struck in the past week were safe.

What happened

"At some point, they may want to start a war, and it is unclear whether we will remain in the NPT after any future war," Rezaei said, according to TASS. He added that while Iran remained a party to the treaty it had "22 rights" under it, and that any talks on its nuclear programme would have to start with those. "You must first recognize our rights," he said.

Middle East Eye, reporting the same interview, said Rezaei described Iran as debating whether to keep its long-standing ban on nuclear weapons if fighting resumed, but that no decision had been taken. In the same broadcast, Rezaei said he had read the letter sent to Tehran by US Vice-President JD Vance but had not yet replied, and that the American "tone has completely changed".

Late on Saturday, the chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Ebrahim Azizi, wrote on X that Iran would answer "any threat" with "an immediate and even harsher response, with zero limits and an open bank of targets", according to the Iranian state broadcaster Press TV. "Without a doubt, we dictate when this war ends," he wrote, describing the order issued on Saturday by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for a "geographically unrestricted response" to any attack as "absolute and non-negotiable".

In Atlanta, where foreign ministers of the G20 met this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump had not decided whether to order new strikes. "He hasn't made a decision," Rubio said, Gulf News reported.

Hormuz: more ships hit

The shipping lane remains the main front. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Friday and Saturday that four tankers had hit naval mines and caught fire while using what it calls "unauthorised routes" through the strait. Those claims have not been independently verified, Gulf News reported, and none of the tankers has been publicly named.

Separately, Oman evacuated 25 crew members from a Panama-flagged tanker that caught fire after an attack about 1.6 nautical miles off Musandam, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO), which is run by the Royal Navy, reported a vessel struck by an "unknown projectile" south of Iran's Lavan island, with its crew safe, according to Gulf News. It was not clear whether the incidents were linked. Saudi Arabia's military said its air defences had intercepted and destroyed a drone over the Riyadh region on Saturday, and two more over its eastern and southern regions. The US Central Command dismissed as "false" an IRGC claim to have destroyed an American sea drone.

The Indian crews

Ports, Shipping and Waterways Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said on X that the Marshall Islands-flagged liquefied natural gas carrier Al Mayeda, carrying six Indian seafarers, was hit in a projectile attack in the Gulf on 30 October. "All 6 Indian nationals, along with the entire 25-member crew, are completely safe," he wrote, according to ANI.

The government has also said that all 29 Indians aboard two other ships hit in the Strait of Hormuz are safe and uninjured, Deccan Chronicle reported: two on the Liberia-flagged supertanker Arzanah, struck on 29 October, and 27 on the Panama-flagged crude tanker Louise 1, struck on 30 October.

The toll so far has been heavy. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal has said 22 Indian nationals, including 14 seafarers, have been killed in the West Asia conflict.

Background

The NPT, which entered into force in 1970, is the foundation of the global system meant to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. Iran signed it in 1968 as one of the original parties, and under it renounces nuclear weapons in return for the right to peaceful nuclear energy, with its facilities open to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran's "rights" argument rests on Article IV, which describes the right of members to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes "without discrimination".

Article X of the treaty lets a member withdraw if "extraordinary events" have "jeopardized the supreme interests of its country", provided it gives three months' notice to the other parties and to the UN Security Council. Only one country, North Korea, has announced its withdrawal; it went on to test a nuclear weapon in 2006.

Iranian officials have floated leaving the treaty before, usually as a bargaining position. Rezaei's remarks are notable because they come from the secretary of the body that sets Iran's national security policy, and because he tied the question directly to a resumption of the war rather than to sanctions or diplomatic pressure.

India has never signed the NPT, arguing that it divides the world into nuclear "haves" and "have-nots". But New Delhi has consistently said it does not want another nuclear-armed state in its extended neighbourhood, and an Iranian exit would put new strain on the treaty system and on the region.

What it means for India

The more immediate stake is the Strait of Hormuz. A large share of India's crude oil and liquefied gas imports normally passes through it, and thousands of Indian sailors work on ships in the Gulf. Any widening of the war, or a move by Iran towards nuclear weapons, would make the strait more dangerous and keep oil and shipping insurance costs high, which feeds into fuel, fertiliser and freight prices in India.

What happens next

Rezaei said Tehran had not yet replied to the Vance letter, and Qatar is continuing its indirect mediation. The US holds its midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November, and Washington has given no timeline for a decision on further strikes. Iran has not taken any formal step towards leaving the NPT, which would require a notice to the Security Council.

Key numbers

• 3 months: notice a member must give before leaving the NPT, under Article X
• 4: tankers Iran's IRGC says hit mines in the strait on Friday and Saturday (unverified)
• 35: Indian seafarers aboard three ships hit in the past week, all reported safe
• 22: Indian nationals killed in the West Asia conflict, according to the MEA, including 14 seafarers