Trump says US may have to give Iran 'the hammer' as Tehran warns a new war would last longer

US President Donald Trump told a campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday that the only reason he had not "finished with Iran" was that he wanted to save lives, but that "at some point we're going to have to give them the hammer", AFP reported. Iran's military answered that any new war would last longer than the last one and that the US president would not be able to dictate how it ended.

The exchange came on the eve of Tuesday's US midterm elections, as Iranian negotiators held a third straight day of talks with Qatari mediators in Doha and Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed that two more oil tankers had exploded after hitting Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker claims could not be independently verified.

The latest warnings

Iran's army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia, said on state television that "a potential future war could last longer than previous conflict, and the American president would not be in a position to dictate the timing or the conditions of its conclusion", according to Dawn, citing agencies. A Revolutionary Guards spokesman, Hossein Mohebbi, said that in a conflict with America "there are no geographical limitations".

Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said on Saturday that he had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance seeking to revive talks, and that he had not yet replied, AFP and Dawn reported. Rezaei said Tehran had told Washington that unless its conditions were met, neither would the strait reopen nor would there be negotiations. The White House has not commented on the letter.

In the Gulf, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told a conference in Manama on Sunday: "We're hoping that there is a diplomatic breakthrough... But I think we're also, as we've shown before, braced for the worst."

Shipping attacks continued. The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) reported that a tanker was struck by two projectiles 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, on the Saudi-Kuwaiti coast, on Sunday, with all crew accounted for, according to Gulf News. US Central Command rejected the Iranian foreign minister's claim that Tehran had not attacked civilians, saying more than 20 civilian mariners had been killed in recent months, Gulf News reported.

The tanker claims

A spokesperson for the IRGC Navy told the state broadcaster IRIB that the two tankers had been "in violation of regulations" and were using "an unauthorized route" through the strait when they hit mines, The Jerusalem Post reported. According to the statement, as reported by Iran's Press TV and republished by Orinoco Tribune, both ships had switched off their navigation and identification systems to pass "covertly", and both were "brought to a halt at the scene". The IRGC said the vessels were operating with US military support, a claim for which it gave no evidence, and said their owners "shall bear full responsibility".

The IRGC has given no ship names, flags or crew figures for any of the weekend's incidents, and no shipowner, flag state or the US Central Command had confirmed them by early Monday India time.

Background

Iran has now claimed at least six mine strikes on tankers since Friday: four on Friday and Saturday, according to its own statements reported by Gulf News, and the two announced on Sunday night. None has been confirmed by an independent source. Over the same period, the Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier Al Mayeda, with six Indian sailors aboard, was hit by "unidentified objects" in the Gulf, and Oman evacuated 25 crew from a burning Panama-flagged tanker off its Musandam peninsula.

The UKMTO has recorded 81 projectile attacks on ships in the strait since 6 July, 59 of them on the southern route, CBS News reported.

The fighting began on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran. A ceasefire followed in April, and a US-Iran navigation memorandum was signed in June, but Al Jazeera said it had collapsed by August. Since then the strait, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, has been the main front.

What they are saying

Earlier on Sunday Trump said the war would be over "very soon, one way or the other", and that Iran would either agree a deal or "we'll just end it", Al Jazeera reported. On Saturday he said the US still had to "take care of" one or two Iranian sites, including the underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain, but that he was "not in a hurry". Iran denies carrying out nuclear work there.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Qatari and Pakistani mediators were "continuing consultations regarding our conditions", and that he hoped the US would have "enough sense to choose diplomacy", Al Jazeera reported. Iran's plan would reopen the strait within two days if Washington lifts recent sanctions, restores oil waivers granted in June, reduces its forces in the region, recognises shipping routes designated by Iran and Oman, and ends the conflict on all fronts, including Israel's attacks on Lebanon.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks led by Qatar were continuing. "Talks have actually never stopped," he said, adding that the US would be open to a diplomatic solution, according to Al Jazeera. He has also said Trump has not decided whether to order new strikes.

Al Jazeera reported that the US had warned Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of fighting after the midterms, and that a senior Israeli official, cited by the Israeli news site Ynet, said Israel was preparing for another round immediately after the vote. Neither government has said so publicly.

Markets

Oil prices eased on Monday on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, with Brent crude down about 1.8% at around $111.4 a barrel in Asian trade, Business Today reported, after it settled at $113.43 on Friday and rose 13.6% over October.

What it means for India

India buys most of its crude oil abroad, and a large share of its oil and gas imports normally passes through Hormuz, so every reported strike feeds into fuel prices and the import bill. Thousands of Indian sailors also work on ships in the Gulf. The Ministry of External Affairs has said 22 Indian nationals, 14 of them seafarers, have been killed in the West Asia conflict, ANI reported. The government said last week that Indian crew on three ships hit near the strait were all safe; no Indian nationals have been reported aboard the ships named in Sunday's claims.

What happens next

Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November. Trump said in October that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms. Whether Washington accepts Iran's two-day plan, rejects it, or resumes strikes once the vote is over is now the main question for shipping and for oil importers such as India.

Key numbers

• Tanker mine strikes claimed by Iran since Friday: at least six, none independently confirmed
• Projectile attacks recorded by UKMTO in the strait since 6 July: 81
• Indian nationals killed in the West Asia conflict, per the MEA: 22, including 14 seafarers
• Brent crude: about $111.4 on Monday, down about 1.8%
• Civilian mariners killed in recent months, per US Central Command: more than 20
• US midterm elections: Tuesday, 3 November