Americans vote in midterms that will decide Congress, with Iran war decision looming

Americans vote on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of both houses of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term, with the unresolved war with Iran, the cost of living and Trump's own standing hanging over the result. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and the governorships of 36 states are on the ballot.

The first polls close at 6 pm Eastern time on Tuesday, which is 4.30 am on Wednesday in India, in the parts of Indiana and Kentucky that keep Eastern time; the last close in Alaska's western Aleutian Islands at 1 am Eastern, or 11.30 am IST on Wednesday. For India the outcome matters beyond Washington: Trump has repeatedly hinted that he could resume strikes on Iran after the vote, and oil and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, on which India's energy imports depend heavily, remain hostage to that decision.

What is at stake

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, counting two independents who vote with the Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority of 51, because Vice-President JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie in the Republicans' favour. The 35 Senate contests include two special elections, in Florida and Ohio, for the seats vacated by Marco Rubio and Vance when they joined the administration.

In the House, the Clerk of the House's figures, as cited by The Rio Times, show 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies. A majority is 218 seats. Because every House seat is contested, a modest swing would be enough to hand Democrats control.

Several states have redrawn their congressional maps since the last election in an unusual mid-decade redistricting fight, which began with a Texas map designed to add Republican seats and drew a response from California voters, who approved a measure aimed at five Republican-held seats. Analysts disagree on how much the new lines help either side.

What the polls and forecasters say

The Cook Political Report, in ratings published on 30 October, called the Democrats "slight favorites" to win the Senate and projected that they would gain between 12 and 25 House seats, according to a summary by Clash Report. Cook listed seven Senate races as toss-ups, six of them held by Republicans: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, plus the Democratic-held open seat in Michigan.

The Silver Bulletin polling average, as cited by Clash Report, had Democrats ahead by 8.9 points on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would back for Congress, as of 30 October. Emerson College's final national poll found Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 42% among likely voters, and put Trump's approval rating at 37%. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said the polls are wrong and that Republicans will "defy history"; the party that holds the White House has usually lost House seats in midterm elections.

Among the closest Senate contests are Michigan, where the Republican Mike Rogers faces the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for an open seat; Texas, where the Republican Ken Paxton faces the Democrat James Talarico; Ohio, where Senator Jon Husted is defending his seat against the former senator Sherrod Brown; Alaska, where Senator Dan Sullivan faces the former congresswoman Mary Peltola; and Iowa, where Ashley Hinson faces Josh Turek for an open seat. In North Carolina, the former governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is favoured by Cook to take the seat being vacated by Republican Thom Tillis.

The issues

Prices have dominated the campaign. Persistent inflation, higher fuel costs since the war began and the strain on farmers from rising costs have been central to Democratic attacks, Fox News reported in its election-eve guide.

The war with Iran, which began on 28 February, is the main foreign-policy issue. Polls show it is unpopular, Fox News reported, and some Republican candidates, including Rogers in Michigan and Hinson in Iowa, have distanced themselves from Trump's handling of it.

Trump has told voters to treat the election as a vote on him. "If you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate on Nov. 3, we will continue to put America first every single day," he said, according to Fox News.

The Iran question

The vote comes as the US and Iran trade threats and messages through mediators over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking before a rally on Sunday, Trump said of the war: "We've had such a victory, and we'll put it away very soon, one way or the other," according to CBS News. At a rally the same day he said: "at some point we're going to have to give them the hammer," according to a summary by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

Axios reported that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had pushed Trump, in a call on 28 October, to resume strikes on Iran immediately after the midterms, while Trump wanted to let negotiations play out. The US outlet MSNOW, citing three senior Gulf officials, reported that the administration had told Gulf allies to be ready for strikes to restart as soon as 4 November, JINSA said. The White House has not confirmed either report.

Iran's army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia, warned on Sunday that a new war "could last longer than previous conflict, and the American president would not be in a position to dictate the timing or the conditions of its conclusion", CBS News reported. Iran's foreign ministry said on Monday that it had offered to restore security in the strait within two days if Washington met its conditions, including an end to the US naval blockade.

Brent crude was trading at about $107 a barrel on Monday morning in New York, JINSA said, far above its level before the war.

What it means for India

A Democratic win in either chamber would not change who commands US forces, but it would give Congress more power to investigate and constrain the administration's war policy, trade measures and spending. For India, which buys most of its crude oil from abroad and has seafarers on ships in and around the Gulf, the immediate question is whether the vote is followed by a return to strikes or by a deal that reopens Hormuz. The result also comes weeks before the Quad leaders' summit that the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has said will be held in Manila in November.

What happens next

Counting begins on Tuesday night US time, which is Wednesday morning in India, but may take days. California and Oregon count postal ballots that arrive up to 10 November and Nevada up to 7 November, The Rio Times reported, and Alaska's ranked-choice tallies are due on 18 November, according to CBS News. Any Senate runoff in Georgia would be held on 1 December. The new Congress takes office on 3 January 2027.

Key numbers

• House: all 435 seats; 218 needed for a majority
• Senate: 35 seats contested; Republicans hold 53, Democrats and allied independents 47; Democrats need a net gain of 4
• Governors: 36 states
• First polls close: 6 pm ET Tuesday (4.30 am IST Wednesday); last 1 am ET Wednesday (11.30 am IST)
• Generic ballot: Democrats +8.9 points (Silver Bulletin, 30 October)